This timely book by John Zogby, Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, offers an insider’s look into the world of political polling, which he’s had decades of experience in. His book is not only a guide to how to read polling data but also a critical examination of the evolving role polling plays in shaping public perception.
De-mystifying Elections
He starts by talking about an important issue that afflicts polling today: abuse and misinterpretation. Chapter 1, “Good Polls, Bad Polls, No Polls,” contextualizes with real-life examples, such as the Reuters MSNBC National Tracking Poll of 2000, how good polls can be very informative while bad ones prove misleading. Zogby claims that opinion survey firms have to be more cautious while preparing and interpreting polls to avoid distorting public opinion.
The Modern Age of Polling
As technology has advanced, so too have polling methods. In Chapter 2, Zogby discusses how polling practices have adapted to the digital age, especially with the rise of internet surveys and the decline of landline telephones. He stresses that independent pollsters must pay close attention to polling methodology—such as sample design and question framing—to ensure accuracy. Zogby’s message is clear: understanding the details of polling methodology is essential to interpreting results accurately.
Between the Lines Reading
Perhaps most importantly, the book teaches one how to read polls and understand their meaning. In Chapter 3, “Getting the Polls Right and How to Read Them Right,” Zogby propounds his self-explanatory topic by using elections such as the New Jersey Senate race of 1996 and the Pataki-Cuomo gubernatorial contest of 1994 to illustrate how fast polling data can be mistranslated. He points out how polls represent public opinion only at a particular time and do not predict events. Zogby also addresses the fluidity of polling, using examples of late-breaking voter movement-the kind that actually happened in the 2016 U.S. presidential election-as evidence that polls can turn on a dime and therefore demand thoughtful analysis.
The Human Element in Polls What makes Beyond the Horse Race different is Zogby’s emphasis on the human side of polling. In Chapter 5, “Reading Polls from the Bottom Up,” he outlines how examining subgroups, such as NASCAR fans or Wal-Mart shoppers, can reveal important information about voter behavior. This approach underscores what Zogby believes: polling is about enabling people to see not only the winners but, more importantly, broader social trends that inform voters’ decisions.
With Zogby’s view of qualitative research services, readers are provided with a more detailed presentation of public opinion.
Learn from Mistakes.
Zogby is refreshingly candid about some of his own polling mistakes. In Chapter 7, “The Ones That Got Away, ” he recounts the mistaken call he made for John Kerry in 2004. Acknowledging how he was wrong, Zogby makes the profession of polling human and reminds that polls are an imperfect science. His ability to learn from those mistakes lends credibility to his analysis and to take a critical approach to polling data. Conclusion What emerges beyond the Horse Race is an open, informative look into political polling. Readers of Zogby, through his unique biographical interchanges, technical insights and technical know-how, can search out the real, important apparatus for reflection and understanding in public opinion research. His central message points out that if properly understood, polls are powerful tools, especially when the complexity of human behaviour is concerned. Zogby’s work should become a must-read for anyone interested in understanding better just how all this polling has changed society.